Canadian home sales took a turn in April 2021, declining by 12.5% (sa m/m) from the highest level on record in March 2021. Listings followed suit, falling by 5.4% (sa m/m). While both sales and listings decreased in April, the smaller decline in listings further eased the national-level sales-to-new listings to 75.2% from record high readings earlier this year (the highest being 91% in January). While this is a move in the right direction towards a better supply-demand balance, the ratio is still significantly higher than its long-term average of 54.5%. As a result of this persistent tightness in the housing market, the composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 2.4% (sa m/m). This is a deceleration in price gains from paces observed over the last two months, owing in the most part to a slowing in prices for single-family homes and townhouses. Apartments, which had remained relatively close to pre-pandemic levels before accelerating earlier this year have maintained momentum in April.
Movements in the housing market this month continued to be broad-based rather than market-specific, as declines in sales were spread out across much of the country.
The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) also announced that, effective June 1, the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages (i.e., residential mortgages with a down payment of 20 percent or more) will be the greater of the mortgage contract rate plus 2 percent or 5.25 percent.
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In October the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM began the fourth quarter with a dip of 0.1% from the month before. The final quarter of the year is typically slow for the index, and the monthly decline was in line with the average of the last 10 Octobers, in five of which the index retreated. In short, it is too soon to herald a downward trend on the national home resale market. Indeed, if seasonal pressure were removed (seasonal adjustment), October would have been the third consecutive month of an underlying uptrend.
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent. Recent data suggest that the slowdown in the global economy has been more pronounced and widespread than the Bank had forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). While the sources of moderation appear to be multiple, trade tensions and uncertainty are weighing heavily on confidence and economic activity. It is difficult to disentangle these confidence effects from other adverse factors, but it is clear that global economic prospects would be buoyed by the resolution of trade conflicts.
In March the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 1.5% from the previous month, a sharp acceleration from the February increase of 0.5%. The advance was led by three of the 11 constituent markets: Halifax (3.3%), Hamilton (2.8%) and Toronto (1.9%). The rise for Vancouver matched the 1.5% of the composite index. Rises were more moderate for Winnipeg (1.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.1%), Montreal (1.1%), Victoria (1.0%), Calgary (0.9%), Quebec City (0.9%) and Edmonton (0.3%). It was the first time since last November that all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before.
The Teranet-National Bank HPI jumped 1.5% to a new high in March, its 17th straight monthly rise. Its recent vigour coincides with historically high numbers of home sales in most regions of Canada, coupled with limited supply. The monthly jump of the unsmoothed HPI was even bigger – 2.7%, the most of any month since July 2006, taking the unsmoothed index to a cumulative rise of 11.9% since last June (left chart).
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In February the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.5% from the previous month, an acceleration from the January increase after three consecutive months of slowing. The advance was led by four of the 11 constituent markets: Halifax (2.3%), Hamilton (1.1%), Vancouver (0.8%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Rises of less than the countrywide average were reported for Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.4%), Calgary (0.4%) and Toronto (0.4%). The index for Winnipeg was flat on the month. Down from the month before were the indexes for Edmonton (−0.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.5%). After three months, from September to November last fall, in which all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before, February was a third consecutive month in which one or more markets were down on the month.
The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week.